2026 Economic Outlook: What U.S. and Houston Business Leaders Need to Know

By 2026, the economic outlook for the United States—and particularly for the Houston region, including The Woodlands—points to a period of stabilization following years of volatility. This new phase is expected to be marked by moderate growth and a shift in the primary drivers of employment.

1. U.S. Economic Outlook for 2026

Experts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and the Federal Reserve agree that the U.S. economy remains resilient, operating under a “soft landing” scenario or sustained low-intensity growth.

• GDP Growth: Real GDP is projected to grow between 1.8% and 2.6%. Some analysts anticipate acceleration toward the end of the year, driven by productivity gains from artificial intelligence.

• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation (PCE) is expected to ease to the 2.4%–2.8% range. The Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts, potentially bringing interest rates down to approximately 3%–4% to encourage investment.

• Investment and Stock Market: JPMorgan and BNY Wealth forecast continued strength in equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing potential growth of 10%–15%.

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2. Houston and Surrounding Areas (Including The Woodlands)

The Houston metropolitan area is expected to continue outperforming the national average in real GDP growth, although job creation is likely to slow compared to the post-pandemic surge.

• Employment: The Greater Houston Partnership (GHP) projects the creation of 30,900 new jobs in 2026, bringing the region to a record 3.52 million workers.

• Energy Sector (Oil & Gas): A net loss of approximately 3,200 jobs is anticipated due to moderately lower crude oil prices and increased technological efficiency, requiring fewer workers for the same production levels.

• Healthcare Sector: Healthcare is expected to be the region’s primary growth engine, generating nearly 14,000 new jobs, representing close to 50% of total regional job growth.

• Other Sectors: Construction and public education are each projected to add approximately 6,000 new jobs.

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3. A Closer Look at The Woodlands

The Woodlands continues to strengthen its position as a strategic hub for corporate investment and long-term economic development.

• 2026 Strategy: The Woodlands Township will prioritize fiscal responsibility and economic development to maintain a business-friendly environment.

• Key Event: The 2026 Economic Outlook Conference, hosted by The Woodlands Area Chamber of Commerce and scheduled for February 6, 2026, will bring together regional leaders to discuss local growth trends, with a strong focus on infrastructure and talent attraction.

• Attraction Factors: High-quality school districts and public safety will remain the primary drivers attracting new families and businesses to the area.

Key Economic Indicators for 2026